With so many bubbles blown by the Federal Reserve, “something will burst soon.”
BTC could become a genuine safe haven if some conditions were met.
After a possible selloff, people will run back towards bitcoin after any crisis has run its course.

It’s hard to shake the fact that bitcoin (BTC)’s ascent from one fresh all-time high to another in recent months has taken place amid a backdrop of a struggling global economy. The United States’ GDP infamously tanked by a record 32.9% in Q2 2020 and fell by 3.5% across 2020 as a whole, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected in June that the global economy would shrink by nearly 5% across the same period.

These are somber figures, yet some economists are suggesting that things could get even worse. Economists at the IMF recently warned that public and private debt — which were already rising in 2019 — could reach tipping point as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, crippling the global economy to the point where it can’t properly recover.

Meanwhile, the US might approve their new USD 1.9trn coronavirus relief package in the coming days.

Economists and analysts speaking to Cryptonews.com largely agree with this assessment, even if they disagree on the timeline involved in any debt- and coronavirus-fuelled economic crisis. And while some suggest that commodities such as gold and silver may benefit from any acute crisis, others claim that the bitcoin and cryptoasset markets will suffer, as people and businesses rush for liquidity (i.e. cash), as we already saw during a major market crash in March 2020.

Probabilities, not certainties
Most economic and financial experts appear to agree that some kind of debt-driven slump is approaching, although they tend to disagree on whether this is an inevitability or not.

“I think the crisis is inevitable and coming in the next [few] years,” said Michaël van de Poppe, a cryptocurrency trader and analyst.

“Overall private and public debt are going through the ceiling, while real estate and equity markets are accelerating fast and people are jumping around in euphoric emotions thinking that it will only go up even more. But, then the [US Treasury] yields are crawling upwards,” he added.

Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which is considered to be a safe investment, revisited its one-year high of 1.6% this week, while Goldman Sachs estimates it might hit 1.9% this year as they “believe strong economic data will lead yields to resume their upward trajectory in the coming quarters.”

However, Société Genérale’s Albert Edwards wrote in a note, “the risk is growing that with so many bubbles blown by the [Federal Reserve] something will burst soon.”

However, for economist and author Peter Earle of the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a looming debt- and spending-fuelled crisis isn’t completely unavoidable.

“In every moment economic, financial market, and social circumstances change, and thus the likelihood of a downturn changes. Even if all the economic ‘stars’ were aligned in a way that made a crisis, recession, or depression likely within a few months – whatever that means – a single Treasury policy change, Federal Reserve program, or some other influence could and probably would radically change the predicted scenario,” he told Cryptonews.com.

That said, Earle acknowledges that the US and wider international economy is exhibiting many disconcerting signs.

“The huge expansion of the US money supply in March and April of 2020 has had a highly stimulative effect in financial and asset prices […] There’s also an uncomfortable persistence in unemployment rates owing to the lockdowns. So clearly the economy is very hot in some ways and lukewarm in others,” he added.

Read more: cryptonews

Bitcoin has sparkled so far this year. The price of the digital coin is currently experiencing a price pull back at the $50K level and that speaks volumes about its performance. Many opinions are flying around the crypto space regarding Bitcoin’s next step as its impressive journey isn’t looking to stop any time soon.

Bitcoin has also seen a new wave of institutional influx as traditional financial institutions have taken more than a sudden interest in the cryptocurrency as the somewhat endless glow around the coin continues to shine.

Jesse Powell, Kraken CEO and co-founder has now stated that he believes the price of Bitcoin is “going to infinity. Mr. Powell made the comment when asked by reporters what his expectations were regarding Bitcoin.

According to Powell, Bitcoin fanatics firmly affirm that Bitcoin is going to be the world’s top currency. He added that Bitcoin’s market cap could basically equal that of the dollar as well as the euro or both of them combined.

“Of course you know we can only speculate. But when you measure it in terms of dollars you have to think it’s [Bitcoin] going to infinity,” Powell said. “And I think the true believers will tell you that it’s going all the way to the moon, to Mars, and eventually it would be the world’s currency,”

Powell also stated that Bitcoin has a very moderate chance to hit $1 million in the next 10 years, citing the rate at which the U.S. Government continues to print money as a major factor in Bitcoin’s quest to reach infinite numbers.

“I think people are increasingly looking to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. They see it as a better version of gold, and something to protect them against all of this inflation that’s happening.”

The notion of Bitcoin being a safe haven asset had been solidified even more this year after multi-billion dollar financial corporations have labeled Bitcoin a hedge against market variations.

Powell tipped the presence of the young generation in the current crypto space as a factor that will help propel the digital coin to greater heights. The CEO of Kraken also made news back in December 2020 when he labeled the U.S fiat currency, as a “risky prospect” compared to BTC when in possession.

Read more: ZyCrypto

A Bloomberg Intelligence report has analyzed the bitcoin market and its growing stature as the digital store of value. The report looked into various aspects of the top cryptocurrency, including its declining volatility, rising adoption, and growing inflow of funds from a traditional store of value assets such as gold, stocks, and bonds.

Bitcoin in 2021 is transitioning from a speculative risk asset to a global digital store-of-value, in a world going that way, in our view.

We see prudent diversification sustaining a rising tide in this price-discovery stage for nascent Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in this bull run has not just seen its price nearly triple from 2017 high but more importantly seen a massive adoption from institutions that are using it as a treasury reserve asset amid declining US Dollar value.

$100,000 Could Be Bitcoin’s Next Threshold
Bitcoin in 2021 has managed to surpass its earlier threshold of $50,000 price target and $1 trillion market cap that too only within two months of this year. With the rising demand vs. declining supply and an increasingly favorable macroeconomic environment, the report cites Bitcoin has matured as an asset class and could reach the $100,000 price threshold by the end of 2021.

It’s unlikely there will ever be a Bitcoin equivalent that’s no one’s liability or project.

The report also cites that Bitcoin’s relative volatility is on a decline against gold and if the nascent digital asset continues to behave similarly, its volatility would be less than that of Amazon and other stocks in a couple of years. Bitcoin is gaining momentum entering the 60/40 mix partly due to when paired with gold the top cryptocurrency outperforms and has less risk than the S&P 500.

The report also cites that the current price volatility and selling come from majorly from retail traders and quite similar to the early 2017 selling pattern, however in the long run hodlers would outnumber these weak sellers.

Potential For Bitcoin Price to Stabilize Around 100x an Ounce of Gold
The current selling patterns and outflow of funds from stocks and the Gold market and if the trend continues the price of one Bitcoin is expected to rise 100X the price of an ounce of gold.

A potential path for the Bitcoin price is to stabilize around 100x an ounce of gold and for volatility to resume its downward trajectory.

The report analysis suggests that bitcoin price would continue to rise by 55X to 15X as supply diminishes after every block reward halving.

Read more: CoinGape

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell thinks Bitcoin’s price is “going to infinity.”
He explained Bitcoin could be worth the market cap of all world currencies combined.
Powell, unphased by Bitcoin’s volatility, sees it as an effective long-term hedge against inflation.

Kraken CEO and co-founder Jesse Powell said he believes the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is “going to infinity,” when asked about his expectation by Bloomberg Technology’s Emily Chang.

“Of course you know we can only speculate. But when you measure it in terms of dollars you have to think it’s [Bitcoin] going to infinity,” Powell said. “And I think the true believers will tell you that it’s going all the way to the moon, to Mars, and eventually it would be the world’s currency,” he added.

Chang then asked Powell to clarify his answer in terms of a numeric amount. He reiterated that true believers in Bitcoin expect it to replace all the world’s currency. “So that means basically whatever the market cap of the dollar is, the euro; all of that combined is what Bitcoin could be worth,” he explained.

He added that a $1 million price level in the next 10 years was very reasonable.

Hedging Bets on Bitcoin
Powell said that the rate at which the U.S. continues to print money would be a factor in how soon BTC reaches his astronomical predictions.

“I think people are increasingly looking to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset,” he said. “They see it as a better version of gold, and something to protect them against all of this inflation that’s happening.” Powell singled out younger people in particular as taking notice of it.

Powell said as much when he appeared on Bloomberg Surveillance in December 2020. He asked rhetorically, “How do you justify not having bitcoin on your balance sheet with the kind of inflation that we’re seeing now in the market?”

He expressed that holding dollars seemed like a “risky prospect” compared to BTC, which he said is “finite, predictable, and even a greater store of value than something like gold.”

Unwavering Belief
Chang asked Powell whether BTC’s continuing volatility made him waver in his belief. “No, it doesn’t make me waver at all,” Powell promptly replied. He said the system had continued to prove itself over the past decade, as upgrades have made it more robust, and adoption has steadily increased.

He did however say that BTC was an inappropriate asset for speculators. “I think there are a lot of weak hands out there,” he said. “They come in and day trade. They don’t really understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin.” He said those investing in BTC should be prepared to hold for at least five years, to withstand short term volatility. “The price could move up and down 50% on any given day, and you have to have strong conviction to hold through that.”

Read more: beINcrypto

Some analysts are calling for the Bitcoin price to reach as high as $150,000 in 2022.
Analysts believe the latest halving is helping to push the price up.
Institutional investments are helping provide mainstream legitimacy to BTC.

The incredible rise in the Bitcoin price and increased interest from financial companies have led to monumental projections for the asset in the coming months.

Bitcoin recently overtook the $50,000 mark again as its upward trajectory has been mostly unharmed by small dips and backslides. BTC was able to reach $52,600 on March 3 before retreating back under $50,000 on March 4.

Bitcoin has been on a successive streak of record shattering prices, setting an all-time high of $58,333 on Feb. 21. In trying to explain the reason for this price push, analysts have pointed to a number of factors, but specifically the last halving.

Bitcoin Bull Calls
William Quigley, managing director of Magnetic, told CNN Business that the past BTC halving has been key in the current bull run.

“What’s happened historically whenever that happens for between the next 12 and 18 month, Bitcoin can go up between 300% and 500%,” said Quigley.

The most recent halving happened in May 2020. There has been some skepticism that it may not have the same effect on the price as the previous halvings did.

This was seen after the second halving of July 2016. On the day of the halving the price was at $660 — 17 months later in December 2017 it hit a new high of $20,000.

If this trend and Quigley’s analysis are correct, hitting $100,000 or even above that is not impossible. We are already seeing this pump in the price and it’s only been less than a year since the halving happened.

Other Impacting Factors
While the halving may be having a strong impact on the price, there are other factors that go into pushing Bitcoin higher.

The interest and monetary investment of corporations into Bitcoin have been a major boost for the cryptocurrency. While actual cash injections like Tesla’s $1.5 billion purchase did help push the price, the media and spectacle around such events also contribute to interest and investment.

Nods towards acceptance and backing by other financial institutions have also helped. Goldman Sachs even recently announced that it will reopen its cryptocurrency trading desk.

Institutional hesitancy towards BTC has been one reason it has not succeeded in achieving mainstream acceptance in years previous. Banks and big financial houses cited its volatile nature when explaining why they did not consider it an asset class or valuable investment for itself or clients.

The recent change in tone by institutions could see a fundamental shift towards the acceptance that has so long been denied, along with an impressive price rise.

Read more: beINcrypto

The S2FX model predicts that the Bitcoin (BTC) price will surely touch $100K in the next few months, and $288,000 by 2024. Fidelity Director has praised PlanB for making accurate BTC price predictions so far using S2FX.

PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, is pretty much confident that the BTC price is following his charts. On Monday, March 1, PlanB provided an update post the major BTC price crash on the previous day. Before today’s 6% surge, BTC was trading at Around $45K levels on Monday when PlanB’s update arrived.

As the author notes, the BTC price is following the S2FX model like a “clockwork”. Previously, PlanB has stated several times that Bitcoin (BTC) is all set to touch $100K levels anytime between April-September this year. The way Bitcoin has been moving so far in 2021, the target price doesn’t seem impossible.

At press time, BTC is trading 6.6% up at a price of $49,064 with a market cap of $913 billion. On February 22, Bitcoin (BTC) touched an all-time high of $58,000, however, it has corrected more than 20% since then. Since BTC price movement continues as per the S2F model, reach $288,000 by 2024.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model has gained much popularity among its investors and PlanB’s followers. The model measures the futures BTC price movements based on the number of years it would take the current BTC supply. A higher value of S2XF is a bullish indicator as it indicates scarcity.

Fidelity Director Praises PlanB’s Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
On Monday, Fidelity‘s director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer released his new report “Understanding Bitcoin” wherein he explains how Bitcoin has gained mainstream adoption and its evolution as Digital Gold. “In my view, bitcoin has evolved to the point that it could be treated as a form of digital gold…a possible counterweight to future monetary inflation,” he tweeted.

Interestingly, Timmer has mentioned the Stock-to-Flow (S2FX) model and why he finds it exciting. He writes:

“Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) pricing model is a popular valuation approach among bitcoin’s most vocal proponents. The S2F model’s price projections are eyepopping. The model predicted the price of one bitcoin at $24k this year (done!) and $463k in 2025. One can see why bitcoiners are so excited”.

Timmer, however, adds that while taking the supply of BTC into the equation, the S2FX model doesn’t take the demand into consideration. “Again, price lies at the intersection of demand and supply, and without the demand side kicking in, it doesn’t really matter how scarce the supply is. Thus, I see S2F as a one-dimensional model in that regard,” he notes.

Read more: Coinspeaker

Ruffer, the British asset manager, and Citi Group, the investment banking giant in separate predictions said that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are inching closer towards mainstream adoption. The prediction comes at a time when Bitcoin price seems to be stuck under $50,000 ever since breaking past its new all-time-high above $58,000 a couple of weeks back.

Ruffer has a total of $28.6 billion in total assets under its management and recently also revealed that it has invested 3% of its asset in Bitcoin and also holds indirect exposure through its position in MicroStrategy. The firm in its half-yearly financial report lauded Bitcoin as the next-gen institutional investment asset and said,
“We think we are relatively early to this, at the foothills of a long trend of institutional adoption and financialisation of bitcoin,”

The firm added

“Bitcoin brings something significantly different to the portfolio.Due to zero interest rates the investment world is desperate for new safe-havens and uncorrelated assets,”

CITI Group Says Bitcoin Can Become Primary Choice of Currency For International Trade
CITI Group released its research note on Monday as well, in this note CITI Group cited Bitcoin’s growing adoption and believe it is at the starting point of mainstream adoption and its primary use could grow in the field of international trade. The investment banking giant in its research note said,

Bitcoin price has more than doubled since the start of the year, however, the price movements have changed significantly in 2021, where the top cryptocurrency has risen in the first week of every new month creating a new all-time high, followed by a sharp correction and weeks of consolidation before another price rise.

After covering the losses of the previous month in the first week of February, Bitcoin rose to a new ATH and corrected 20% in the following week followed by another week of consolidation to rising above $50,000. The highly bullish events such as MicroStrategy’s another Billion Dollar Bitcoin purchase and the US Government’s approval of the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus bill also couldn’t help Bitcoin price to stay above $50K. The start of the new month and continuous institutional buying along with other on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin could start its next leg of the bull run.

Read more: CoinGape