Bitcoin’s price is hurtling toward its previous all-time high of $20,000. But it will take a much bigger surge before it feels like 2017 again.
The Bitcoin world is in a strange situation right now.
Bitcoin split (Image: MaxPixel)
Prices are booming but few are celebrating. Big corporations are holding Bitcoin and making huge profits from doing so, but they’re not receiving a lot of attention. Even billionaire investors are backing Bitcoin, and yet only some outside the crypto bubble are taking note. So, why hasn’t Bitcoin mania kicked in yet?
“In my opinion, most advocates/investors in cryptocurrencies have a long-term belief/outlook on them, and it was no doubt in their minds that we would return to the ATH of 2017, much like it has in previous cycles,” John Dantoni, research analyst at The Block, told Decrypt.
“While Bitcoin has done very well year to date, and will likely even experience a correction (at some point), this doesn’t feel like euphoria to me,” he added.
Bitcoin price continues its parabolic intraweek rally with a surging breakout from the bullish pennant we discussed in yesterday’s analysis. Since the opening of the traditional markets on Monday, BTC has risen by an eye-watering 17%.
With the leading crypto asset now holding at around $18,700, it’s only 5% shy from getting back to its all-time high set on December 17, 2017 – 1,069 days ago.
Bitcoin price chart (Image: geralt/Pixabay)
Looking at the global crypto picture, a further $21 billion has entered the market in the last 16 hours.
Price Levels to Watch in the Short-term
On the 1-hour BTC/USD chart, we can see that the $18,800 level has created some intraday resistance as bullish traders eye the psychological $19K level above. This is the first wall bullish traders need to push through if the uptrend is to continue and is being made all the more difficult by the fact BTC has broken into the overbought region on the RSI.
If this is overcome, there is a much stronger resistance at $18,953 (lowest yellow line) that represents the highest weekly close ever on Bitcoin’s chart. This will be a major test of bullish confidence.
Above that, we have the 1.618 Fibonacci resistance at $19,386 and the all-time high at $19,660. From there folks, we are into price discovery!
Bitcoin and the aggregated crypto market are pushing higher today, with BTC breaking above $17,000 while Ethereum helps lead altcoins higher as well
The benchmark cryptocurrency hasn’t seen much selling pressure at this level, despite it long being viewed as resistance
It has struggled to break above this level a few times, but the selling pressure here has not catalyzed any sharp selloff
Where it trends next will depend largely on whether or not it can firmly surmount this level before tonight’s daily candle close
A firm close above here could help further perpetuate what one firm is describing as the “longest and most stable” rally that Bitcoin has ever seen
Bitcoin’s intense uptrend is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. The crypto is now pushing $17,000 as bulls look to make a sustainable break above this crucial level.
Bitcoin (Image: MichaelWuensch/Pixabay)
Whether or not it is surmounted in the near-term will depend largely on whether or not bears attempt to reverse the uptrend at this point. There are already serious signs of exhaustion amongst sellers, so they may not be in a position to catalyze a selloff.
Where the entire market trends next will depend entirely on Bitcoin and how it reacts to this crucial level.
An unstable global economy, fears of inflation, and institutional investors warming up to cryptocurrencies have pushed Bitcoin prices to record closes.
The Bitcoin price set a new record this week as the pioneer cryptocurrency posted the highest ever three-week close in its 12-year history, data shows.
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Bitcoin price chart (Image: geralt/Pixabay)
While Bitcoin reached its highest price of nearly $20,000 in the first week of December 2017, its weekly chart closed much lower at $13,500. This price behavior indicated that—at the time—the open market considered Bitcoin to be highly overvalued and the $20,000 price a mere wick in the longer-term outlook, with the tri-weekly charts moving in a downtrend from then until February 2019.
But the scenario has since changed, and the market is now accepting a higher price for Bitcoin. The latest tri-weekly candle for the asset closed at $15,960—an 18% increase—showing that the market is now valuing Bitcoin much higher than it did in 2017.
Grayscale, which runs the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bought this week another 15,114 Bitcoin ($241 million). GBTC holds 481,711 Bitcoin, representing 62% of all Bitcoins in the ownership of publicly-traded companies.
In brief
Grayscale this week bought another 15,114 Bitcoin ($241 million), bringing the total number of Bitcoin the company owns to 506,000, or $8.1 billion. The company now manages a total of $10 billion worth of cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which was created in 2013, is the company’s biggest trust. The total value of assets managed by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) now exceeds $8.2 billion.
GBTC holds 481,711 Bitcoin, which corresponds to 62% of the 814,359 Bitcoins in the ownership of publicly-traded companies.
Grayscale, a digital assets management company, this week bought another 15,114 Bitcoin ($241 million), bringing the total number of Bitcoin the company owns to 506,000, or $8.1 billion. The company now manages a total of $10 billion worth of cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin (Image: AllanLau2000/Pixabay)
Grayscale is among the biggest purchasers of Bitcoin. Its total investments comprise 2.29% of Bitcoin’s entire market cap.
Michael Sonnehnshein, Managing Director of Grayscale, declared this week the largest capital raise week “EVER,” after the firm raised $262 million. He said that on Thursday the company “raked in over $115 million in Bitcoin alone.”
A senior Citibank analyst has made a grandiose prediction for Bitcoin in a recent note to institutional clients—even drawing comparisons with the gold market of the 1970s.
In brief – A senior Citibank executive predicts Bitcoin may reach the six-figure price mark in 2021. – Bitcoin’s rise has been similar to gold in the 1970s, the executive said. – The rise of state-backed digital currencies also shows a changing regime, one that supports the growth of Bitcoin, he added.
Tom Fitzpatrick, a managing director at US bank Citibank, has predicted Bitcoin’s price may reach over $318,000 in 2021 as per a note to institutional clients last week. He called the move amidst an uncertain macro environment and its similarities to the gold market of the 1970s.
While long called “digital gold” by crypto fanatics, Bitcoin has so far been a poor store of value (due to its infamous price swings) or medium of transfer and has emerged as a trading vehicle instead. However, as per Fitzpatrick, such a backdrop is exactly what primes the asset as one that would sustain an eventual “long-term trend.”
Using technical analysis—forecasting of future asset prices using past examples, similarities, and data—Fitzpatrick put out the six-figure Bitcoin prediction if it followed a similar trajectory of the past seven years.
The co-founder of Stone Ridge explains his fascination with Bitcoin and why his company bought $162 million worth of it.
In brief
Stone Ridge co-founder Robby Gutmann explained why the company recently bought 10,000 Bitcoin as part of its treasury reserve strategy.
He also touched on why people are fascinated with Bitcoin, describing it as “flavors of crypto nerd.”
Gutmann listed three observable trends, suggesting that investments in Bitcoin are poised to grow even further.
In mid-October, Stone Ridge Holdings Group, an asset management company with $10 billion worth of assets under its belt, revealed that it had bought 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC), currently worth over $162 million, as part of its treasury reserve strategy.
Bitcoin (Image: Antana/CCBY-SA2)
During The Breakdown podcast today, Stone Ridge co-founder Robby Gutmann shed some light on factors that led to this decision.
The fragility of fiat systems
Speaking about Stone Ridge’s long journey to Bitcoin, he started on a personal level. According to Gutmann, there are “three flavors of crypto nerd”—and he can relate to all of them.
Bitcoin’s seduction of mainstream investors continues as a new report suggests it’s a better performing asset than stocks and gold.
In brief
Bitcoin pushes past $16000 as it outperforms stocks and gold.
Ethereum suffered a brief hard fork but prices continued to climb.
Stock Markets had a mixed day as US fails to halt rising COVID cases.
It was another strong day on the crypto markets as research highlighted Bitcoin’s market-beating performance when compared to traditional stocks and shares.
Open bank vault (Image: ahobbit/Pixabay)
According to a note from analytics firm Messari, Bitcoin in comparison to real estate, stocks, gold and bonds delivers a higher rate of return over a four year period.
Bitcoin’s low correlation with other asset classes has made it an increasingly attractive asset to offset any losses seen in other parts of investor’s portfolios, said Mira Christanto, the Messari report author.
The report noted renewed interest from sovereign wealth and pension funds, concluding, “they have realized this opportunity and have begun new allocation strategies to maximize long-term value.”
The news helped crypto global market cap record its fourth straight day of growth. Prices ticked up 2.58% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin took a healthy jump up with a 4.35% rise, thanks to its surge into the $16,000 at the time of writing.
From institutional investors, big endorsements and the Bitcoin halving, here are 5 key reasons for Bitcoin’s rising price.
In brief
Bitcoin’s price has been increasing for months, and there are several reasons behind the surge.
High-profile figures and companies have expressed support for Bitcoin.
Other reasons include Bitcoin halving, which also has a direct impact on Bitcoin’s price.
The price of Bitcoin is above $16,000, having broken through for the first time in three years. Its current price of $16,081 represents a 28% increase in value over the last three months.
It’s been a rapid rise since March, when Bitcoin drastically fell to
Bitcoin price chart (Image: geralt/Pixabay)
its lowest point of the year, touching as low as $4,000. The coin has continued to bounce back and has fought its way above the $10,000 price point, going on to make new recent highs—and hit values not seen since Bitcoin’s epic 2017 bull run. Yet this time, an entirely different set of circumstances are accelerating Bitcoin’s price to new highs.
Why is Bitcoin going up?
There are a multitude of reasons for Bitcoin’s price rise. Investment from large institutions like MicroStrategy have led the way, as have major companies like Grayscale managing Bitcoin for their own clients. What’s more, it’s now easier to buy Bitcoin since PayPal began letting people buy and sell Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s total supply has also halved, and this has also played a role in Bitcoin’s price increase. Each of these individual factors have combined to generate an impressive bull run for Bitcoin during the second half of 2020. But it all began with MicroStrategy.
Bitcoin price is well on its ways to touching its previous all-time high of $20,000, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken claimed in its latest Bitcoin Volatility Report (for October).
Kraken released it’s August Bitcoin Volatility Report 2 months ago. Then the cryptocurrency exchange sounded supremely confident about BTC registering higher highs as the year ends. In its October version of the same report, Kraken has maintained its bullish stance. November will see bitcoin log much higher price and volatility rallies. Also, BTC might as well be on the way to reclaiming the previous all-time high of $20,000.
Bitcoin Price And Volatility To Climb In November
If Kraken’s August Bitcoin Volatility Report is anything to go by, BTC has already left behind September’s crash in the rearview mirror and is on its way to register more ‘incremental volatility’.
Bitcoin ‘Taxation is Theft’ (Image: Pixabay)
The exchange pointed out that November has stood out to be the ‘third-best yielding month’ for bitcoin, on average. BTC has also showcased its best price-performance this month historically.
When it comes to monthly volatility, with 85 percent ‘average annualized volatility’, November stands fourth.
Kraken says that bitcoin will mirror its past November trend with regards to price and volatility this month too. But there’s a catch.
BTC dropped in the ‘suppressed volatility pocket’ on July 24 when the volatility figure plummetted to 23 percent. To keep the 8-year trend of November’s uptrend intact, bitcoin must revert back to its 315-day volatility moving average. 99 days have passed since BTC made the dip into the 15 – 30% volatility range. And the cryptocurrency risks dropping back in the pit again.
If bitcoin doesn’t galvanize back into action and volatility remains below 30 percent, the 8-year long 315-day moving average trend will not follow. But if BTC maintains its volatility numbers well above 30 percent, the cryptocurrency stands to clock as high as 66 percent wrt volatility, which in turn should boost prices too.
