Bitcoin’s price is hurtling toward its previous all-time high of $20,000. But it will take a much bigger surge before it feels like 2017 again.
The Bitcoin world is in a strange situation right now.
Bitcoin split (Image: MaxPixel)
Prices are booming but few are celebrating. Big corporations are holding Bitcoin and making huge profits from doing so, but they’re not receiving a lot of attention. Even billionaire investors are backing Bitcoin, and yet only some outside the crypto bubble are taking note. So, why hasn’t Bitcoin mania kicked in yet?
“In my opinion, most advocates/investors in cryptocurrencies have a long-term belief/outlook on them, and it was no doubt in their minds that we would return to the ATH of 2017, much like it has in previous cycles,” John Dantoni, research analyst at The Block, told Decrypt.
“While Bitcoin has done very well year to date, and will likely even experience a correction (at some point), this doesn’t feel like euphoria to me,” he added.
A senior Citibank analyst has made a grandiose prediction for Bitcoin in a recent note to institutional clients—even drawing comparisons with the gold market of the 1970s.
In brief – A senior Citibank executive predicts Bitcoin may reach the six-figure price mark in 2021. – Bitcoin’s rise has been similar to gold in the 1970s, the executive said. – The rise of state-backed digital currencies also shows a changing regime, one that supports the growth of Bitcoin, he added.
Tom Fitzpatrick, a managing director at US bank Citibank, has predicted Bitcoin’s price may reach over $318,000 in 2021 as per a note to institutional clients last week. He called the move amidst an uncertain macro environment and its similarities to the gold market of the 1970s.
While long called “digital gold” by crypto fanatics, Bitcoin has so far been a poor store of value (due to its infamous price swings) or medium of transfer and has emerged as a trading vehicle instead. However, as per Fitzpatrick, such a backdrop is exactly what primes the asset as one that would sustain an eventual “long-term trend.”
Using technical analysis—forecasting of future asset prices using past examples, similarities, and data—Fitzpatrick put out the six-figure Bitcoin prediction if it followed a similar trajectory of the past seven years.
Bitcoin could surge by up to 1,000% and reach $170,000 if it closes November’s monthly candle at or above $13,880, based on historic performance.
A popular Bitcoin analyst and trader pointed out that Bitcoin has historically headed towards massive price surges once it closed higher than the previous monthly high. As a result, BTC could face up to a 1,000% price pump soon if it closes November at or above its current price.
BTC To Pump By 1,000% Soon?
Bitcoin has been surging in value in the past month. The impressive performance led to several consecutive yearly records and reaching $16,000 last Friday – the highest BTC price displayed since early January 2018.
Bitcoin Price Chart (Image: NikonD300/MaxPixel)
Although the cryptocurrency has retraced since its peak and currently trades at about $15,400, the analyst Josh Rager suggested that the asset could soon skyrocket even further. Rager noted that “every time Bitcoin has closed above the previous monthly all-time high – a 700% to 1,000% uptrend has followed.”
The first similar scenario highlighted in his graph occurred in 2013. BTC’s January monthly close was around $20, which coincided with the previous monthly high. Shortly after, the primary cryptocurrency spiked to about $150 – or a near 700% increase.
Somewhat identical events transpired on two more occasions in 2014 and during the parabolic price increase of 2017. The latter is also the current benchmark as BTC closed in December at about $13,880.
With Bitcoin’s price hovering above that level now, Rager believes that “November could be the first monthly close that we see breaking the previous high.”
Should his prediction materialize, Bitcoin will find itself in a six-digit price territory. The “modest” 700% increase will take BTC to $120,000, while the 1,000% surge will result in $170,000 per coin.
Its adoption and acceptance has also grown exponentially
In the current century, everybody recognises Bitcoin as a success story that has changed our financial and economic system.
However, that has not always been the case. When the coin was initially developed, sceptics believed the coin was going to be a flash in the pan. But the coin has proven to be a huge success.
The value of the crypto asset has grown from $0.1 to its current over $15,000. Though it has not always been plain sailing, Bitcoin has always found a way to pull itself back whenever it experiences any low.
Bitcoin Electronic Money (Image: MaxPixel)
Considering what the coin has been able to achieve in recent times, especially when it comes to corporate adoption and also governmental efforts to ensure regulation in the industry, this could just be the defining moment for Bitcoin.
Why this moment is critical for Bitcoin
The argument that has always been in favor of Bitcoin has been the fact that the coin is decentralized. This has given the coin an enormous advantage over fiat currencies that are prone to government regulations.
Owners of Bitcoin have no need to worry about government interference or be scared of the government tendency to devalue its fiat currency. Bitcoin is immune to such interferences.
After predicting a significant bull run for Bitcoin and calling it a “life raft,” Raoul Pal discussed several issues within sectors of the traditional financial world.
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency (Image: MaxPixel)
Former hedge fund manager and CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, believes that the real impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is about to reach the financial markets. By outlining several upcoming cornerstones among traditional financial assets, he highlighted Bitcoin as the “life raft” in this situation.
Raoul Pal: Everything Has Changed
In a recent Twitter thread, the Wall Street veteran outlined the rapidly growing COVID-19 cases worldwide. The total number of infected has neared 45 million, while the death toll is almost 1,2 million.
Pal predicted that these rising numbers in Europe, the US, and Canada are about to “exert economic pressures and extinguish the Hope phase of reflation dreams.” He believes that the upcoming consequences will harm the economy even more than the early 2020 developments. A real economic recovery “will take more than a post-election stimulus in January.”
He continued by looking at several markets that have started to feel the adverse consequences and have fallen to long-term support levels. Those included the oil price, Spain’s benchmark stock market index – the IBEX 35, the EU Banks Index, the euro, the British pound, the US dollar, and more.
As such, he broached a few possible solutions – “you can buy bonds and dollars, or you can take the life raft – Bitcoin.”
“Or, to dampen the volatility of a risk-off event (we can and will see sharp BTC corrections), you can have all three for a near-perfect portfolio for this phase.” – Pal concluded.
In 1987’s Black Monday stock market crash, Sam Walton, the world’s richest man, lost more than half a billion dollars in a few hours.
When reached for comment, Walton said, “It’s paper anyway. As far as I’m concerned we’re focusing totally on the company doing well and taking care of our customers.”
He didn’t care about dollars; he cared about his asset Wal-Mart, and he still owned that.
History of the #HODL
In bitcoin’s volatile and roller coaster past, “HODL” was the meme that bound the cryptocurrency community together. It stood for the proposition that we all believe in the future of bitcoin. It’s both funny and insightful.
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency (Image: MaxPixel)
Here is the original post by GameKyuubi on a Bitcoin Talk forum (spelling errors and profanity included):
I AM HODLING
I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e. GF’s out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I’LL TELL YOU WHY. It’s because I’m a bad trader and I KNOW I’M A BAD TRADER. Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro. Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO IT’S GOING DOWN I’M GONNA SELL he he he and then they’re like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY’RE DOING buy back in but you know what? I’m not part of that group. When the traders buy back in I’m already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOU’RE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~! Those taunt threads saying “OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD” YEAH NO SHIT. NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD. I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU. You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob. The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.
so i’ve had some whiskey
actually on the bottle it’s spelled whisky
w/e
sue me
(But only if it’s payable in BTC)
It was not about bitcoin versus bitcoin cash or 1,000 other cryptocurrencies. It was bitcoin vs. the world and we ALL embraced it.
It only took 11 minutes for this post to become a meme that became the rallying cry for the entire crypto world. We were all on the same rollercoaster ride and GameKyuubi, in the depths of his frustration, had (sort of) elegantly articulated both what it feels like and the best trading strategy for an asset this volatile.
So the doomsayers were right all along. Crypto was nothing but a bubble and it finally burst.
Good.
Maybe you’re surprised to hear that coming from me, someone who’s dedicated more than a few words to the power of crypto to change the world. Did I suddenly have a change of heart? Did I jump on the Paul Krugman bandwagon and finally realize that Bitcoin is evil? Did I join the naysayers who laugh with glee every time the price drops and arrogantly shout that Bitcoin is going to zero?
Nope.
I say good because the circus has finally left town. The cameras have packed up and gone home. The reporters are losing interest. The story is finished.
And now the crypto community can get back to doing the hard work of building the future in peace and quiet.
Cryptocurrency Art Gallery: Litecoin, Ether, Ripple, Bitcoin and Namecoin (Image: Namecoin/Flickr)
I’ve always said the bubble would burst and in the long run it wouldn’t matter in the least. In retrospect I think Bitcoin getting to $20,000 so fast was the worst thing to ever happen to the community. For years, Bitcoin was nothing but Internet geek money and something to laugh at, but when Bitcoin’s price rocketed higher and higher, it suddenly became something else entirely:
A threat.
Bitcoin’s furious rise scared the hell out of banks and governments everywhere. Banks saw their business models crumbling as programmable money took the world by storm and governments feared they might lose their iron-fisted control of the money supply. Authoritarian regimes raced to crush it. Regulators came out in force. The press unleashed a torrent of articles filled with fear, uncertainty and doubt.
But now as Bitcoin’s price recedes the frenzy of ignorance and fear will die with it and the community can get back to work.
If you’re new to the Bitcoin space, the last few months have been pretty crazy.
There have been some steep climbs and heart-stopping drops making for a roller coaster of emotion that’s not easily controlled. The price action is both thrilling and at times, painful, so it’s easy to lose sight of what you’re investing in. All the coins seem to be running together, so what’s the difference? How is one coin to be distinguished from another? And more importantly, how is an investor to know what the long term value of a coin will be?
Bitcoin (Image: MichaelWuensch/Pixabay)
In this article, I’m going to make the case for what makes Bitcoin different, how Bitcoin is a system that, despite all the cloning, has yet to be truly replicated.
Real Innovation
To really understand the value proposition of Bitcoin, it helps to look at a bit of history. It’s tempting to think that the newest ICO or altcoin is the one that will finally “improve” Bitcoin and fix all of its problems and that Bitcoin will be relegated to the dustbin of history due to its lack of some “feature”. Indeed, nearly every altcoin, ICO or hardfork thinks that they’re being innovative in some fundamental way. What’s missed is that the biggest innovation has already happened.
Decentralized digital scarcity is the real innovation and Bitcoin was the first, and, as this article will make clear, continues to be the only such coin. All the other so-called innovations such as faster confirmation times, changing to proof-of-whatever, Turing completeness, different signature algorithm, different transaction ordering method and even privacy, are really tiny variations on the giant innovation that is Bitcoin.
It’s important to remember here that alternatives to Bitcoin have been proposed since 2011 and none of them have even come close to displacing Bitcoin in terms of price, usage or security. IxCoin was a clone of Bitcoin created in 2011 with larger block rewards and a premine (large number of coins sent to the creator). Tenebrix was an altcoin created in 2011 that tried to add GPU resistance and again had a large premine. Solidcoin was another altcoin created in 2011 with faster block times and again, a premine. About the only ones that survived (and not living out a zombie existence) out of that early altcoin era are Namecoin and Litecoin, which distinguished themselves by NOT having a premine.
Recently, in personal communications and small Telegram groups, I’ve noticed signs of quiet desperation growing as dreams of a quick reversal to new all-time-highs fade.
Meanwhile, Twitter is noisy with technicians, and egos attached to price predictions. Predictions are made with seeming conviction, because if right, egos will claim clairvoyance.
Here’s the truth: no one knows how far we’ll fall.
Bitcoin price chart (Image: geralt/Pixabay)
Certainly, we can make educated guesses based on technical indicators, and even predict points of support based on our early explorations of crypto fundamentals, but these are all educated guesses. Our techniques will mature over time, but reflecting on my career in the equity markets, everything will remain an educated guess. We’re predicting the behavior of humans, after all.
Some concrete numbers. If 2018 truly echoes 2014, then we could very well be in for another ~50% drop from here.
Upset that I said that? Already typing FUD!!!! in the comments? Wait until the end; discussing that reaction is the entire point of this post.
Hearings on Bitcoin and its derivatives are being held in the USA on a regular basis, and invariably the expert witnesses fail to properly describe the actual processes going on.
If they used the correct language and excluded all analogies, the only possible conclusion would be that America cannot regulate Bitcoin under its current legal system. The Constitution guarantees the inalienable rights of American citizens, and therefore Bitcoin is a protected form of publishing. The only way Bitcoin can be made regulable is if the Constitution is changed; and that does not mean adding a new Amendment, it means removing the First Amendment entirely. Inevitably the anti-Bitcoin protagonists will face a robust and ultimately successful legal challenge that will remove the possibility of any sort of “BitLicense” or interference from the CTFC, FinCEN or any other agency. It will also remove any possibility of interference at the State level. The consequence of adhering to the basic law of the United States will cause America to become the centre of all Bitcoin business for the entire world.
Let me explain why this is the case.
Bitcoin Network (Image: MaxPixel)
Some say that Bitcoin is money. Others say that it is not money. It doesn’t matter. What does matter are three things; that Bitcoin is, that the Bitcoin network does what it is meant to do completely reliably, and what the true nature of the Bitcoin network and the messages in it are.
Bitcoin is a distributed ledger system, maintained by a network of peers that monitors and regulates which entries are allocated to what Bitcoin addresses. This is done entirely by transmitting messages that are text, between the computers in the network (known as “nodes”), where cryptographic procedures are executed on these messages in text to verify their authenticity and the identity of the sender and recipient of the message and their position in the public ledger. The messages sent between nodes in the Bitcoin network are human readable, and printable. There is no point in any Bitcoin transaction that Bitcoin ceases to be text. It is all text, all the time.
Bitcoin can be printed out onto sheets of paper. This output can take different forms, like machine readable QR Codes, or it can be printed out in the letters A to Z, a to z and 0 to 9. This means they can be read by a human being, just like “Huckleberry Finn”.
At the time of the creation of the United States of America, the Founding Fathers of that new country in their deep wisdom and distaste for tyranny, haunted by the memory of the absence of a free press in the countries from which they escaped, wrote into the basic law of that then young federation of free states, an explicit and unambiguous freedom, the “Freedom of the Press”. This amendment was first because of its central importance to a free society. The First Amendment guarantees that all Americans have the power to exercise their right to publish and distribute anything they like, without restriction or prior restraint.
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
This single line, forever precludes any law that restricts Bitcoin in any way.
